Posted by
Nee on Sunday, May 03, 2009 12:48:09 PM
Updated again: I received a great article from the American Academy of Family Physicians.
Go here: http://www.aafp.org/online/en/home/publications/journals/afp/preprint/combat-h1n1.html
As of today, there are 662 confirmed cases of the "Novel H1N1 Swine origin Influenza Virus" (aka SOIV). there is more and more talk about having "swine flu parties" jsut like the Chicken pox one I had for my kids...Natural selection and immunity and all that jazz. Why not? You gotta find someone who has it, first!!
Updated: From a comment I read, and put simpler than I could have, here is why I did not even think bioterror.
"The H1N1 influenza was an avian strain that happend upon the right combination of proteins in what is called the "Hemagglutinin spike" to be able to attach to human cells. Normally, the swine or avian variants don't infect humans well because their versions of hemagglutinin stick better to the cells of the animals they usually infect, the scientific word is "trophic", they are trophic for, or adapted for, pigs and birds. Only a few people ever got the H5N1 "avian flu" that had people worried a couple of years ago, mainly because the H5N1 virus isn't well-adapted for humans and you have be around massive amounts of infected bird poop to be the index case in humans.
The copying mechanism for RNA viruses like influenza is pretty loose, meaning there will be errors and the "message" in the genetic material is garbled. This keeps animal and human immune systems a little behind the power curve in the arms race between viruses and animal and human antibodies. In the case of the original H1N1, a bird or pig was suffering through its own private hell of influenza, there was a chance mutation that produced a virus that stuck to human cells like duct tape, and some unlucky farmer happened to inhale at the wrong time. From such accidents are viral epidemics often born.
Not only that, but it's possible to be infected with more than one influenza strain at the same time, pigs are able to pull off this trick and two viral strains in one cell can exchange genetic information, combining avian and swine elements, or swine and human elements. The fact that this is a "frankenvirus" with elements from human, swine and avian influenza shouldn't be surprising at all, it's just another aspect of how well-adapted influenza is to survive and propagate.
The fact that this virus is an H1N1 does not mean it is THE H1N1 from 1918. H1 and N1 simply refer to the variants of the proteins hemaggultinin and neuranimidase, even within H1N1 viruses there is variability. The original H1N1 was copied several years ago from frozen corpses buried during the 1918 influenza in the arctic, and the whole genome (the recipie) for the virus published in a scientific journal. Theoretically, you could take this information, run it through a sequencer and spit out RNA from H1N1 as it was in 1918. Inject that into cells, and several hours later you'll have gazillion H1N1 1918 viruses in your petri dish, all as dangerous to humans as they were in 1918, and in fact deadly to monkeys in the same way it was to humans back in the day, according to another article.
This is definitely not that H1N1 version, though. That H1N1 infected half the world's population when the fastest form of transport was a steamship or railroad, had a monstrous kill ratio for influenza (2% of the world's population died from influenza), and a unique signature in that the highest casualties were in the 20-40 age group. Because of the unique nature of that influenza virus, the stronger your immune system the worse off you were, it was your own immune system that killed you in a blue-on-blue "cytokine storm". If we were seeing much more rapid spread and higher death numbers I would be worried. As it is, this is so far just another influenza. If someone designed this one to be pathogenic, they're a crappy genetic engineer. Natural selection is a much better explanation at this point than human creation."
SARS, Bird Flu, and Swine Flu…all were responsible for the potential to reach epidemic proportions. But, they didn’t.
SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) caused quite a panic. In reality, worldwide there were 774 cases that resulted in death. Most of those were in Hong Kong and southern China. In the US, 8 cases were diagnosed, none fatal.
(http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/27/swine-flu-mexico-sars-business-healthcare-flu-hysteria.html)
Bird Flu…Well, in the US, there has been documentation since 1997, but most cases have been found in Asian populations. The virus that causes this is the H5N1.
And then we have Swine Flu. What is completely irritating as a person who loves epidemiology and lab research is this is the same virus that causes Influenza A, H1N1.
Granted, there may be mutations, but it is my opinion that calling it a pandemic or epidemic is unwarranted. The actual flu season is not over until May’s end. And so far with all the hype, 160 cases have been officially diagnosed with one fatality according to the CDC I find it interesting to note that the highest incidents are in CA, SC, NY, TX, MA and DE.
In most states, as with NY, CA the outbreaks were related to being in Mexico where the number of cases and deaths are highest. Maany of the states are the southern borders to Mexico.
The CDC uses regions to identify the strains of flu and in one review charted them. It's interesting to note that of the nine regions, the regions east of Texas that the more common strain found was type B. In regions north and west of Texas, the common strain was Type A. Summarily speaking, type A(H1N1) strain is the most dominant of the three strains reported and sub-typed.
The testing for the flu seems to increase by about 100,000 per year, but roughly 40,000 of those tested are actually positive. I suspect that increased testing happens because several years have passed since a method of treatment was developed. Thus the regard for the effectiveness of the two drugs available for treatment, aka, Tamiflu or Relenza, has increased and it does seem make people recover more quickly.
Simple facts will keep people from going out and buying up the local supplies of surgical masks. These rules apply when it comes to prevention and spread of most viruses.
• Wash your hands with soap and water. If you indeed use hand sanitizers that contain alcohol, rub them until the residue is completely dry on your hands.
• Cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing and remember to wash your hands if you do.
• For children who have a tendency not to cover their mouths, one might try teaching them to cough into their bent elbows. As children tend to be touchy with hands to hands, the germs are less likely to spread.
• Viruses can live on inanimate objects, but for very short time periods. Just be cautious if someone has sneezed without covering mouths or noses not to touch the surface area and wash hands!!
• As of April 11th, this year, the cumulative statistics indicate that 178,393 patients have been tested for the flu. 25,407 of those were positively identified for type A and sub-yping for the H1N1, H3N2, and type B.
• For type H1N1, or NKA the Swine Flu, thee were 6,151 cases.
• Finally, Eat PORK!! It does not cause the flu!!!!
I can go back several years and find similar statistics from the CDC. People just need to use their heads. Obama cannot stop this process, nor can he save anybody. The idea that a potential pandemic or epidemic, is happening is crazy.
You see, every year the CDC has to create a new vaccine, and every year the vaccine has several strains in it, similar to the one before it. So for those of you who didn't get a flu shot, and opt to beat the epidemic with a shot now, you will probably receive the same exact shot people got back in September. It will take two weeks for your body to produc the antibodies to fight the flu, but there are no guarantees. Unless this really does become more than just a prolonged flu season, the new vaccine won't be available with this "new" strain of H1N1 until next year, if at all.
If I were to tell you that I am a cynic, would you believe I think this was merely a diversion created by Obama as a way to apy back the crony pharma comapnies who donated to his campaign? He received $450,000 in pharma company donations. What a great way to pay them back!! Create mass hysteria for an epidemic that has NOT occurred and then get the drug companies to bust hump producing more vaccine than they would on a normal basis, right? Yes, I AM a cynic. Any questions?